Desperately projecting that everything is as it was, the Kremlin is only emphasizing how much has changed.
These were 36 hours that provided a glimpse of the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule. Almost every action was improbable, at best a week ago — much was inconceivable, 17 months ago.
A loyal henchman, Yevgeny Prigozhin, slams the premise of the invasion of Ukraine, then claims an airstrike targeted his troops, before taking a major military town without clashes, and then marching to within a few hundred miles of Moscow. But suddenly he executes a baffling reversal, turning back to avoid bloodshed, as the Kremlin claims Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus whom Putin seems to treat with contempt, brokered a dramatic reprieve, in which the insurrectionist who has his armor bound for Moscow, now opts for exile in Minsk.
Even as the dust settles, it still makes little sense. It is important to remember we have yet to hear from Prigozhin that he has accepted exile in Belarus and see evidence his units have genuinely all stood down. He is an open proliferator of misinformation. We should be equally suspicious of the apparent bow with which Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tried to tie this startling episode up with on Saturday night. Two hours earlier, Wagner’s forces were at the gates of the capital (almost), and then suddenly everything is forgiven.
There are large parts of this story missing. We may never learn what they are. Many emotions could have altered Prigozhin’s course. Was the advance north too easy? Did he accept entering the capital would leave his men vulnerable, even to a weak Russian military response? Was the regular military not joining him in large enough numbers? Did he believe a climbdown would only grow his support? While on the surface, Prigozhin’s climbdown makes him appear weak, even finished, he has been the decision-maker over the past 36 hours.
Putin has been left reacting. Silent initially, and then bombastically angry and confident, promising “inevitable punishment” for the “scum.” But hours later, this was all forgotten. Putin’s emotional state — were it known — is arguably less revealing than his actions. By letting Prigozhin go, and apparently sweeping the entire insurrection under the carpet, he’s appeared the weakest yet in 23 years.
Read the full analysis here.